Midterm Analysis
...and hello again!
NOTE FROM THE EDITOR:
Hello to my roughly dozen readers. I apologize for the inexplicable period of inactivity between my last post and this one, but my enthusiasm to comment on Alabama politics and national politics is not always there, particularly for a “passion” project such as this. Thankfully, the guest columnist you’re about to read will not allow me to go totally dormant, so we’re back with a new piece and hopefully more frequent releases to come. Hey, maybe I’ll be unemployed again after the midterms—as I was in 2021 when I first started this project—and have more time to dwell on all this stupid shit! Anyway, hope you enjoy the piece below, and please share it with your friends. It’s certainly a bit more of a mainstream analysis than what you’ll typically see from this newsletter, but I think it’s an excellent assessment of the current moment and the precarious state the Democratic Party finds themselves in.
2022 Midterms Thoughts
By: Guest columnist, Royal Williams
The Democratic Party’s Current Situation
With President Biden’s popularity falling, important promises left unfulfilled, schools a cultural battleground, and unmoored messaging without Trump in office, Democrats are in for a rough midterm.
The country hasn’t gotten the smooth ride they thought they would with Biden. Rising prices, stagnant wages, worker shortages - people feel badly about the state of the economy. Even if job numbers have increased more than any other time in history under the Biden Administration, people have a hard time trusting the stats when they see restaurants closed down extra days because they’re lacking servers, food missing from the shelves, and groceries, gas and rent quickly increasing. Many feel like Democrats aren’t doing anything to grow wages and fight inflation.
Parents are fed up with feeling like they’re not being listened to about school COVID policies. They feel confused by changing and inconsistent policies, and that schools have been closed down for too long. Many associate these policies with Democrats and are directing their frustration at them. Parents feel like they are losing control of even the basics of whether or not schools are open. Republicans have captured the frustration with COVID policies and the imaginary teaching of Critical Race Theory in elementary schools under one smooth slogan - “Parents’ Rights.”
And with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, many who are supportive of the party feel failed by it. Why didn’t Democrats work harder to guarantee abortion access under federal law? Why isn’t the Biden Administration fighting harder to protect access? How can supporters, even the most adamant, trust a party that appears to be failing in protecting a core policy concern and more importantly the health, safety, and rights of millions of Americans. Access to abortion will in large part hinge on the outcomes of the next few elections on the state and federal levels, but in many cases Democrats are disappointed and shellshocked their party could fail in such horrific fashion.
Democrats have a weak national brand - people don’t know what the party stands for. During the Trump Administration, Democrats rode waves of record breaking turnout to good wins like the two senate races in Georgia, fueled in part by fear and hate for Trump. Many feel like Democrats have spent the last year and half in power careening from crisis to crisis without getting anything done–though the very recent and somewhat shocking passage of the reconciliation bill, after it appeared dead, does give them a slight boost in this regard. Even so, what is the party selling broadly? What have Democrats done with control of the White House, Senate and House? Democrats can no longer run on just being better than Trump.
What Democrats Should Do Next
Prioritize Infrequent and New Voters - Prioritize infrequent and new voters who turned out in 2020 for Biden. Democrats need to start ground games and organizing earlier and target people with little party connections. Without Trump in office Democrats still need to "activate" these people.
Pass Legislation That Materially Benefits Americans - Democrats need to pass things that are broadly popular. The issue here is some of the most popular planks are economic legislation that while popular with the party base is not popular with the party donors and in turn elected officials; think here many of the ideas that were in President Biden’s failed Build Back Better plan - universal childcare, reducing costs for prescription drugs and premiums, and extending the American Rescue Plan’s expanded child tax credit. Democrats need to focus on healthcare, improving education, growing the middle class, supporting families with policies like child care and maternal leave, policies that help make raising a family in America easier. Democrats need to be asking themselves, how can we make it easier for people to enter into the middle class and stay there? How can we make it easier and more affordable for folks to live in America? What can we pass that is popular with a majority of the country? Legalizing cannabis on the federal level comes to mind here.
Contrast the Agenda - Democrats need to do a better job at contrasting their agenda with the Republican one and not get bogged down in the media narrative of party infighting. The Democrats’ argument can not be limited to backwards looking attacks on Trump. Democrats must stress that Republicans had absolutely no hand in the relief effort, have consistently sided with the corporations profiteering from the pandemic, and have done nothing to improve life for working families during the past two years, and have made it worse for millions of people across this country by banning abortion and healthcare access in states across the country.
Don’t Take Minorities For Granted - Democrats performed more poorly among African-Americans, particularly men, and Hispanics than in 2016. Democrats can not take these groups' votes for granted. Outreach, policies, and messaging appealing to these groups must be a top priority. Democrats so often expect Black and Hispanic votes but don’t work to earn them.
Continue to Cultivate Asian-American Voters - Asian-Americans are the fastest growing racial demographic in the nation and are participating in civic life in increasing numbers. Asian-American turnout increased in Georgia by over eighty percent and made the difference for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. Asian-Americans could also be the tipping point in states with similar populations like Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. Democrats and Democratic campaigns where it applies should have dedicated outreach and messaging for this diverse community. Georgia and Arizona stand out among states that flipped in the Presidential and Senate elections. In both Georgia elections, the incredibly narrow decisive vote margin was less than the increased turnout among Asian Americans. In Arizona, Asian Americans exceeded their 2016 early voting by 41%, and in Georgia an astounding 58% increase - again just among the early vote. Overall, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders saw the highest increases in voter turnout of any racial group in 2020 - 49.3% in 2014 to 59.5% in 2020. This kind of turnout increases demands for tailored messaging, outreach and engagement. Asian-American voters have already helped make the difference in Arizona and Georgia and could do the same in similar states like Texas and Florida where similar populations exist.
Structural Issues Within The Democratic Party
Party Leadership Isn’t Reflective - The people largely in charge of developing Democratic messaging–white, affluent, college educated, very socially liberal, secular–don’t reflect the party’s makeup or the country as a whole. Unlike the more ideological and homogenous Republican Party, the Democrats are a coalition party made of several smaller groups with competing wants, needs, and ideas, making it much harder to find an animating message that appeals to everyone.
Difference In Donor Opinions - Some of the Democrats’ most popular proposals across party lines - Medicare covering dental and vision, universal childcare, paid maternal leave, stronger worker protections - are very animating to the base but not always to the party’s mega donors, making it much harder to get them passed. We’re in the midst of one of the most pro-Union periods in recent memory, yet the party has not done major messaging on it. Biden gave a half hearted endorsement of the Amazon effort in Birmingham and that was it.
Promoting A Culture Of “Pop Up” Campaigns - The DNC, DGA, DSCC, DCCC parachute into states and throw money around and try to build things top down and it doesn’t work. This was especially glaring in Sara Gideon’s Senate race in Maine. Take a state like Georgia - that was on the ground grass roots organizing largely within the black community, over several election cycles that lead to those three close wins. Not guys from DC flying down or hundreds of millions passed what was already needed.
Not Appealing To The Non-College Educated - Education is increasingly a bigger determinant in political affiliation than income and Democrats are losing the fight. Democrats made huge gains in 2020, especially among white women and the college educated, but I think any left leaning party that roots its victory strategy in the suburbs will eventually be disappointed. And Democrats have lost more and more among non-college educated minorities. Democrats can’t be seen as an out of touch egghead party. Democrats have to talk about the economic issues that Republicans are so weak on. Democrats need to talk about and take action on issues that are affecting people's ability to live comfortably in this country. Healthcare, education, childcare, jobs, wages. Healthcare, education, childcare, jobs, wages.
Bottom Line
Democratic midterm prospects are bad because of inflation, culture clashes, a growing sense the Party has no fight, President Biden is too weak, and unmoored and inconsistent messaging. This in addition to the ever present structural problems the Democratic Party has, and their failure to protect abortion access on a federal level has been devestating to supporters.
There is hope in Republicans opting to harm themselves by nominating seriously damaged candidates, a literal snake oil salesman included, in competitive states like Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania and in running on concerns about the 2020 election instead of talking about where their strongest right now - the economy. Having the “better ideas” will never be enough, though. Democrats must engage and fight their core priorities and supporters while finding a broader and more popular message.
Perhaps the overturning of Roe and the surprise passage of the “Inflation Reduction Act'' will lead to a sort of moral victory, where Democrats lose the House but by a much thinner margin than expected and are able to hold onto the Senate. And then we’re back to another two years of extreme gridlock and calls to “vote harder” in 2024, in what will inevitably be termed the “most important election of our lives.” Welcome to life in the Democratic party.